Most Probable Origin and Statistical Attribution of the Major Causes of Global Mean Sea Level Anomaly and Rising Tides Since the 20th Century

743908e7-5dfd-4419-b890-b34b85eb2ab920251125122909022wseas:wseasmdt@crossref.orgMDT DepositInternational Journal of Environmental Engineering and Development2945-115910.37394/232033https://wseas.com/journals/ijeed/42320254232025310.37394/232033.2025.3https://wseas.com/journals/ijeed/2025.phpMost Probable Origin and Statistical Attribution of the Major Causes of Global Mean Sea Level Anomaly and Rising Tides Since the 20th CenturyPaul C.RiveraAstrometocean Department Hymetocean Peers Company Antipolo City PHILIPPINESThe origin of the anomalous global sea level rise (SLR) since the last century is highly controversial and not fully understood. The observed increase of high tides and decrease of low tides in many coastal areas around the world imply that some crucial physical mechanisms that govern the rising sea levels may have been overlooked. The relative contribution of nutation, axial precession, lunar acceleration, Earth’s spin and sea surface temperature on sea level anomaly was estimated using multiple regression. A very high relative contribution of the polar migration (49.4%) on the mean sea level rise, followed by axial precession (46.7%) and a secondary contribution of lunar acceleration (3.9%) was found. Sea surface temperature and earth spin rate showed negative correlations with sea level rise. The annual changes of the polar migration, axial precession and lunar acceleration appear to be the dominant physical mechanisms behind the SLR problem. These factors are largely driven by strong earthquakes. The rising oceanic tides in the last century up to the present is largely due to North Pole migration. Apparently, the observed nutation and axial precession are caused by the increased eccentricity of the lunar orbit through changes in the lunar distance and lunar acceleration. Finally, the observed SLR was found to be related to the enigmatic 26-second microseism problem. Using the annual geomagnetic North Pole migration dataset of NOAA-NGDC, the observed frequency of 0.038 Hz was found. This possibly indicates that the planet is gradually tilting as it spins with a concomitant gradual build-up of oceanic pressure and release of magmatic and gas pressure, due to lunar-induced sea level rise and reduced lunar distance.112520251125202531132126https://wseas.com/journals/ijeed/2025/a52ijeed-021(2025).pdf10.37394/232033.2025.3.26https://wseas.com/journals/ijeed/2025/a52ijeed-021(2025).pdf10.54097/xkxh4q35Bai, Y., Chang S. & Wu S. (2024). Relationship between Earth-Moon Distance and Tides. Highlights in Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 85, p. 285-292. Cheng, L., et al. (2020). "Ocean Heat Content and its Role in Sea Level Rise." Journal of Climate, 33(12), 5207-5225. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0932.1 Cheng, L., et al. (2023). "Ocean Heat Content and Thermal Expansion." Journal of Climate, 36(4), 987-1005. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0523.1 10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1Church J.A. & White N.J. (2011). Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century. Surv. Geophys, 32:585-602. DOI 10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1 Church, J.A., et al. (2011). "Climate Change and Sea Level Rise." Nature, 472(7345), 435-443. DOI: 10.1038/nature09964 10.1029/2005gl024826Church, J.A., & White, N.J. (2006). "A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise." Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024826 Dangendorf, S., et al. (2023). Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s. Nat. Climate. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8 Dangendorf, S., et al. (2023). "Regional Sea Level Change and Coastal Impacts." Surveys in Geophysics, 44(1), 123-145. DOI: 10.1007/s10712-022-09663-2 Douglas, B.C., Kearney, M.S., & Leatherman, S.P. (2001). "Sea Level Rise: History and Consequences." Reviews of Geophysics, 39(2), 215-230. DOI: 10.1029/2000RG000098 10.1002/2013gl059010Enderlin, E.M., et al. (2014). "An Improved Mass Budget for the Greenland Ice Sheet." Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 866-872. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059010 10.5194/os-16-997-2020Ezer T. & Dangendorf S. (2020). Global sea level reconstruction for 1900- 2015 reveals regional variability in ocean dynamics and an unprecedented long weakening in the Gulf Stream flow since the 1990s. Ocean Sci., 16, 997-1016, doi.org/10.5194/os-16-997-2020. Franc, T. (2012). "Tides in the EarthMoon System." Week of Doctoral Students 2012-Proceedings of Contributed Papers: Part III-Physics (WDS12), Prague: Matfyz Press Publishing House. Frederikse, T., et al. (2024). "The Causes of Sea Level Rise since 1900." Nature, 585(7824), 421-425. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2591-3 Galbraith, H., et al. (2010). "Effects of Future Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitat." Journal of Coastal Research. DOI: 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00076.1 Goelzer, H., et al. (2020). "The Impact of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt on Future Sea Level Rise." Science Advances, 6(51), eaaz5845. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz5845 Gregory, J.M. et al. (2012). Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? J. Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D12-00319.1 Hanna, E., et al. (2024). "Short- and Long-Term Variability of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets." Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5, 17-29. DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7 Hay, C.C., et al. (2015). "Probabilistic Reanalysis of TwentiethCentury Sea-Level Rise." Nature Climate Change, 5, 937-941. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2635 10.1029/2008gl033459Hill, A. E., Brown, J. M., & Fernando, L. (2008). Thermohaline circulation of shallow tidal seas. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(11). DOI: 10.1029/2008GL033459 . 10.1016/s0278-4343(99)00026-6Huang, D., Su, J., & Backhaus, J. O. (1999). Modelling the seasonal thermal stratification and baroclinic circulation in the Bohai Sea. Continental Shelf Research, 19(12), 1485-1505. DOI: 10.1016/S0278- 4343(99)00026-6 Kopp, R.E., et al. (2020). "Regional Patterns and Impacts of Future Sea Level Rise: A Global Perspective." Nature Climate Change, 10, 101-107. doi: 10.1038/s41558- 019-0682-8 10.1029/2004gl021592Levitus, S., Antonov, J.I., & Boyer, T.P. (2005). "Warming of the World Ocean, 1955-2003." Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L02604. DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021592 10.1029/2012gl051106Levitus, S., et al. (2012). "World Ocean Heat Content and Thermosteric Sea Level Change (0-2000 m), 1955-2010." Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L10603. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051106 10.3390/s140305552Li, Z., Jiang W., Ding W., Deng L. & Peng (2014). Estimates of Minor Ocean Tide Loading Displacement and Its Impact on Continuous GPS Coordinate Time Series. Sensors 14(3), 5552-5572; doi.org/10.3390/s140305552 Miller, L., & Douglas, B. C. (2007). "On the Rate and Causes of Twentieth Century Sea-Level Rise." Journal of Geophysical Research. DOI: 10.1029/2006JC003970 Miller, L., & Douglas, B. C. (2011). "Global Sea Level Rise." Journal of Coastal Research. DOI: 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D10-00072.1 10.1175/jpo3002.1Munk W & Bills B. (2007). Tides and the Climate: Some Speculations. J. Phys. Oceanography. p.135-147; doi.org/10.1175/JPO3002.1 Nerem, R.S., et al. (2021). "New Satellite Data Reveal Accelerated Sea Level Rise." Geophysical Research Letters, 48(3), e2020GL090551. DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090551 10.1017/cbo9781139235778Pugh, D. T., & Woodworth, P. L. (2014). Sea-Level Science: Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis and Mean SeaLevel Changes. Cambridge University Press. 10.1126/science.1121381Rignot, E., & Kanagaratnam, P. (2006). "Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet." Science, 311(5763), 986-990. DOI: 10.1126/science.1121381 Rivera PC & Khan TMA, 2012. Discovery of the major mechanism of global warming and climate change. J. Bas. Appl. Sci. Vol. 8, No.1. pp. 59-73. Doi:10.31219/osf.io/9r6gf 10.52562/injoes.v2i1.331Rivera PC, 2022. Seismic-Perturbed Obliquity Change as a Discrete Trigger Mechanism of El Niño and La Niña Episodes. Indonesian Journal of Earth Sciences, 2(1), 51-63. doi: 10.52562/injoes.v2i1.331. 10.5539/apr.v11n2p10Rivera PC. 2019. Gravitational Weakening of Seismic Origin as a Driving Mechanism of Some Astronomical Anomalies. App. Physics Res. Vol. 11, No. 2. doi:10.5539/apr.v11n2p10. 10.31219/osf.io/vpcdjRivera PC, 2011. Discovery of the major mechanism of global warming and climate change. Proceedings of the Global Conference on Global Warming. Lisbon, Portugal. July 2011. 10.31219/osf.io/vpcdj 10.31219/osf.io/h3fauRivera PC, 2006. Modeling the Asian Tsunami Evolution and Propagation with a new generation mechanism and a nonlinear dispersive wave model. Sci. Tsunami Hazards. Vol. 25, No. 1, pp 18-33. doi: 10.31219/osf.io/h3fau Shepherd, A., et al. (2012). "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance." Science, 338(6111), 1183-1189. DOI: 10.1126/science.1228102 10.1002/2015jc010716Visser, H., S. Dangendorf, and A. C. Petersen (2015), A review of trend models applied to sea level data with reference to the ''acceleration-deceleration debate'', J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, 3873-3895, doi:10.1002/ 2015JC010716 Vousdoukas, M.I., et al. (2020). "Projected 21st-Century Changes in Extreme Sea Levels Due to Sea Level Rise." Nature Communications, 11, 536. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15752-5 10.3390/jmse10070984Wei X, Pan H., Xu T. Wang Y. & Wang J. (2022). Development History of the Numerical Simulation of Tides in the East Asian Marginal Seas: An Overview. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(7), 984; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10070984 https://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia. (Accessed in June 2024). https://www.iers.org. International Earth Rotation Service (IERS), Paris, France. (Accessed in November 2024). https://ngdc.noaa.gov. National Geophysical Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (Accessed in March 2015). https://www.usgs.gov. United States Geological Survey. (Accessed in October 2017). http://www.jgiesen.de/moon/FullM oon/index.html. Accessed in September 2013) Hofmeister et al. (2022). A New Mechanism for Plate Tectonics Based on Gravitational Torques that Explains Differences among Rocky Planets. Proc. 53rd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference. USA.