EQUATIONS
Print ISSN: 2944-9146, E-ISSN: 2732-9976 An Open Access International Journal of Mathematical and Computational Methods in Science and Engineering
Volume 5, 2025
On Stochastic Estimation of the Risk of Maritime Accident
Authors: , , , , , ,
Abstract: In this paper, we investigated the occurrence of accidents involving marine vessels/boats along the coasts and inland waters of Northern and Southern Nigeria to determine if the risk was within the tolerable limit. We collected secondary data on maritime accidents from reports of the Accident Investigation Bureau of the government’s Departments and Parastatals in Nigeria, covering the period from 2019 to 2023. We superimpose the risk matrix Markov chain model to determine the long-run risk of maritime accident occurrence. From the result of our analysis, we observed that the number of accidents will be between (50.6, 96.2) with 20.45% of the entire cases of accidents within the period under study, followed by (96.2, 141.8) with 20.36%, etc. As for consequence, fatality will be between
(62.4, 119.8) with 20.52% of the entire fatality within the period under study, followed by (117.2, 234.6) fatality with 20.48%, etc. And the estimated risk value is (5.6327). This value is high and close to the unacceptable region, but tolerable. We, constructed confidence interval for true risk value and found that at 10% level of significance, the risk value lies between [5.329, 5.931]; at 5% level of significance, it lies between [5.273, 5.987] and at 1% level of significance, the risk value lies between [5.160, 6.100]. We recommend close monitoring and strict adherence to safety standards set by NIMASA, NIWA, and other safety protocols of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce risk in the maritime industry.
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Pages: 68-82
DOI: 10.37394/232021.2025.5.7