Abstract: The following analysis describes the effect of viral swine fever (PVF) in Ecuador, using ARIMA (Integrated Moving Average Autoregressive) models. PVF a contagious disease that affects animal health as well as production in the pig industry, causing significant losses, both financial and including food safety risk. This research focuses on the incidence of PVF between 2015 and 2020 in different Ecuadorian provinces, analyzing trends and patterns using ARIMA models to reveal future outbreaks and create mitigation strategies. Results show that the ARIMA model (2,1,2) appropriately describes the dynamics of the disease, presenting a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.87, ensuring an optimal fit. The term MA(1) with the constant are statistically relevant, while the terms AR(1), AR(2) and MA(2) are not, demonstrating the need for model adjustment and improvement. The importance of implementing rigorous biosafety measures, including the development of effective vaccines to mitigate the effects of FVP, is emphasized. It is concluded that the application of ARIMA models are appropriate tools for the prediction of PVF outbreaks by improving animal health management, contributing to the sustainability of pig rearing in Ecuador.

Keywords: Swine viral fever, ARIMA models, animal health, pig production, disease prediction

Pages: 478-489