Abstract: This study employs comprehensive panel data econometric analysis to investigate the determinants of population growth across 10 emerging economies over 61 annual periods (N=610). Utilizing multiple estimation techniques, including fixed effects, random effects, dynamic panel models, panel VAR, and seemingly unrelated regression, the research addresses endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and dynamic interdependencies. Empirical results reveal robust findings: birth rates exhibit strong positive effects on population growth (coefficients 0.789-0.805, p<0.001), while death rates show significant negative associations (-0.340 to -0.375, p<0.001). Health expenditure emerges as a consistently positive determinant (0.106-0.141, p<0.001), whereas economic growth variables demonstrate statistically insignificant direct effects, suggesting more complex mediated relationships. The Hausman test supports the random effects model as preferred (χ²=6.127, p=0.409). Panel VAR analysis reveals dynamic interdependencies and system stability, while SUR estimation distinguishes demographic and economic determinants, with birth and death rates strongly predicting population growth (R²=0.907). Diagnostic tests confirm data quality, stationarity, and absence of severe multicollinearity. These findings contribute to demographic transition theory by demonstrating the continuing importance of traditional demographic factors alongside socioeconomic determinants in shaping population growth in emerging economies, supporting integrated policy approaches for sustainable demographic outcomes.

Keywords: Panel Data Analysis, Health Expenditure, Panel VAR (PVAR), Dynamic Panel Models, Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Demographic Transition

Pages: 120-133

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