WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics
Print ISSN: 1109-9526, E-ISSN: 2224-2899
Volume 13, 2016
Cointegration’s Relationship and Causality between Exportations and Economic Growth from Southern America’s Countries and the United States
Authors: Claudineia Kudlawicz, Tatiana Marceda Bach, Claudimar Pereira Da Veiga, Carlos Otávio Senff, Wesley Veira Da Silva
Abstract: The objective of this study is to comprehend the dynamic of the relationships in the long term between the economic growth, represented by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the exportations from the Southern America’s countries and the United States. Therefore, note that both move together in a period of 51 years, just as well the existence of the causality relationship between them. For this examination, it was used Amplified Dickey Fuller’s methodology and the cointegration test of Johansen (1991) to compare the relationship between the exportations and economic growth and, the causality model proposed by Granger (1969). The results allow inferring, through Johansen’s test, eigenvalue’s statistic and the trace of vector’s existence of cointegration in the United States, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay. The causality unidirectional was confirmed in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay, confirming the hypotheses GLE (export-led-growth). The main study’s contribution allows inferring that the maintenance of causality relationship, contribute to an economic development, thereby, politics incentive domestic production can be progressives, because the exportations showed up the causer of economic growth. In this respect, the political conduct could highlight the importance of competitiveness from countries in the support to domestic to productivity, fiscal incentives and infrastructure, the realization of commercial deals, aiming the exporter growth. For countries which the causality wasn’t identified, contributes for the clarification for other peculiarities, inherent to the individuals contexts that might contribute to economic growth.
Keywords: Word keys: Gross Domestic Product, Export-led-growth, Development countries, Long-term relationship, Johansen’s cointegration, Granger’s causality
Pages: 162-174WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, ISSN / E-ISSN: 1109-9526 / 2224-2899, Volume 13, 2016, Art. #17